I went to the Giraffe Center in Nairobi today. They’ve successfully brought an endangered species of giraffe back from the edge of extinction. But also, they let you feed the giraffes. This is what that looks like:

I went to the Giraffe Center in Nairobi today. They’ve successfully brought an endangered species of giraffe back from the edge of extinction. But also, they let you feed the giraffes. This is what that looks like:

Our machines can do amazing things. Our mapping and travel tools can span numerous transit agencies and modes of transport to conveniently navigate us across the land. They still mess up, which is acceptable. But when they fail, we don’t even know that they have errored, or how, and this is less OK.
On an intermediary leg of a marathon journey from Washington, DC to Nairobi that included a DC Metrobus, a ZipCar, a BoltBus, a commuter train, an airtram, two 6+ hour flights, I needed to simply get from Penn Station to JFK Airport. I already knew that the Long Island Railroad was the best combination of price and speed for my needs, and HopStop’s website confirmed it. Unfortunately my BoltBus ran an hour late, and I found myself recalculating the trip from my phone using HopStop’s mobile app. For whatever reason, whether an errant filter or another limitation of the mobile app, HopStop no longer showed me any LIRR options. In this case, I knew I wasn’t seeing the results I needed. I just couldn’t do anything about it.
Eli Pariser talks about the societal implications of opaque social algorithms in The Filter Bubble, where we don’t know what we don’t know, and couldn’t see it if we did. The ability to understand what we aren’t seeing is also a simple usability affordance. A few apps break the general trend in this department:

Hipmunk intelligently sorts the best flights available by eliminating the obviously bad choices (70% of possible results, according to cofounder Steve Huffman in this Forbes piece extolling Hipmunk’s many virtues). But the site also wisely allows the user to re-expose similar flights, and dive into the larger world of possibilities when your price or time is severely constrained.

Gmail’s Priority Inbox attempts to order your email based on your rules and habits. In my experience, it’s not quite there yet, but by hovering over the Priority icons, you can at least see why the feature sorted your email as it did, and correct for future cases.
If you’re not going to share the secret sauce of how decisions are made, you should at least let users circumnavigate when the decisions are poorly made. An admittedly small group of users care about this sort of thing. And maybe the apps we build will get smarter and smarter and smarter and the exposure of results the machine guesses are wrong will be considered an in-between technology as the machine’s guesses become more perfect. But I think it’s more likely that we’ll still want a grayer, more complicated version of what the machine tells us is possible, even as the machine’s computational abilities exceed our continuously evolving definition of magic. Let us see.
Sara Critchfield and Adam Mordecai‘s talk at Netroots Nation (#nnupFTW) was less-than-standing-room only, so I’ve combined the parts of his talk we were able to catch with a similar talk by their colleague Peter Koechley at the Conversational Marketing Summit. Thanks to Deepa Kunapuli for her notes.
Upworthy’s goal is to amplify content worth spreading online. If you mixed the earnestness of a TED talk with the brevity of a LOLcat and Coca Cola’s distribution network, you’d end up with something like Upworthy’s network of crack content. They don’t necessarily produce the content themselves, they just make sure it goes places. While we debate the impact of technological tactics like SEO and A/B testing on the future of journalism, the Upworthy team is working to harness these new (and always changing) algorithmic tactics for social change.
Peter Koechley (@peterkoechley) thinks about virality as a product of the shareability of the source content and the clickability of the content’s packaging. Everyone who’s spent the last ten years paying consultants to produce viral content will be relieved to know that the latter part of this equation, the clickability of your content’s packaging, is much, much easier to optimize than the content itself. But people don’t spend enough time on this part of the process.
Your Headlines Matter
Sara and Adam, Peter’s colleagues at Upworthy, explain that we’re spending all of our content production time in the wrong places. We slave over the wording in the 12th paragraph of the blog post, and then write a throwaway headline that no one ends up clicking. If we care about people finding our content, we need to think generationally, or keep in mind not just our readers, but also what our readers’ friends will see should the gods of the feed place your work before their eyeballs.

Peter walks us through the three schools of headline optimization on the web. Peter started at the Onion, where hilarity depends almost entirely on the headlines. Unfortunately, because the entire joke is contained in the headline, users can get their giggles without actually clicking through to the site. So headlines from the Onion perform rather poorly in terms of driving traffic back to the website.
The second category of headline optimization is your traditional search engine optimization, where the headline contains all of the right keywords, and again, spells out what the page is about. Google loves proper nouns, but humans find them pretty boring.
Social optimization breaks from these two approaches and hits the user with just a taste of the content, worded in a compelling way, and often with an emotional tone. You may have noticed that brands are learning to generate interactions with their Facebook posts by asking for their followers’ opinions, because if they’re successful, Facebook rewards them by increasing the visibility of their posts. But anyone optimizing for click-throughs rather than comments should be considering the degree to which the headline teases and entices the reader while refraining from giving away the meat of the content. Peter calls this the curiosity gap: too vague, and I don’t care, but too specific, and I don’t need to click the link.
Peter shows a case study of two takes on the same 3-minute video about gay marriage. The video of Zach Wahls’s moving testimony about growing up with two moms reached a million views without Upworthy’s help, and without a great headline. The original video was titled “Zach Wahls speaks about family,” which, Peter points out, is bad because you don’t know who Zach is yet, and you might not particularly care about family. Even though it had already gone viral once, the team at Upworthy decided to try spreading the video again with an improved headline. Angie Aker at MoveOn.org came up with “Two Lesbians Raised a Baby And This Is What They Got” and made the video their daily share. The result was 20 million additional views of the same video, and a headline that regularly beats actual porn results for Google searches for “two lesbians”. A good headline teases, but also appeals to different audiences for completely different reasons. Even homophobes were intrigued enough to click that link. Upworthy will sometimes write 25 different headlines for each piece of content, and test response before selecting a finalist.
Greasing the Tracks of the Internet
For someone studying how ideas spread these days, Upworthy’s facilitation is interesting in a number of ways. First of all, Upworthy has taken after the Instagrams of the world and eschewed the traditional website-as-hub model. Where Instagram pushes everyone to their mobile app, the majority of Upworthy’s existence is in followers’ Facebook, Twitter, and Pinterest streams. Upworthy also has some rather prominent share buttons to help you connect the dots:

Adam and Sarah also advised that we spend 55 minutes on emotion for every 5 minutes of fact. And, as cognitive studies have proven, images work much, much better than text. The default image that gets shared with the link on social networks is particularly important (you can control this with Facebook’s og:image tag).
How the Social Networks Stack Up
(for the content Upworthy has tested — your mileage may very well vary):
Twitter: Not great for actually driving people to your content. Facebook accounts for about 90% of the traffic in their tests. (It’s not clear to me if they’re only counting Twitter.com traffic, or all Twitter clients, as well. This divide has historically depressed measures of Twitter referrals). Twitter users like to share facts.
Facebook: If you have a limited budget, focus everything here. Photo posts get three to four times the interaction of regular posts, but don’t necessarily drive traffic. Close-ups of faces perform well, as do visual dichotomies, in ads as well as posts.
Reddit: Good luck. If you crack it, you are a god.
Pinterest: Hey ladies! Pix please.
Testing Virality
Adam says you must test because you are dumb. We are all dumb. Our intuition means nothing, and Upworthy’s two biggest headline hits were written by interns. You will be wrong 90% of the time.
Peter will pay you $1,000 to popularize a word that describes these phenomena other than ‘virality’.
[Video and slides of Peter’s presentation, with Sara and Adam’s presentation to follow shortly]
Sara Critchfield and Adam Mordecai‘s talk at Netroots Nation (#nnupFTW) was less-than-standing-room only, so I’ve combined the parts of his talk we were able to catch with a similar talk by their colleague Peter Koechley at the Conversational Marketing Summit. Thanks to Deepa Kunapuli for her notes.
Upworthy’s goal is to amplify content worth spreading online. If you mixed the earnestness of a TED talk with the brevity of a LOLcat and Coca Cola’s distribution network, you’d end up with something like Upworthy’s network of crack content. They don’t necessarily produce the content themselves, they just make sure it goes places. While we debate the impact of technological tactics like SEO and A/B testing on the future of journalism, the Upworthy team is working to harness these new (and always changing) algorithmic tactics for social change.
Peter Koechley (@peterkoechley) thinks about virality as a product of the shareability of the source content and the clickability of the content’s packaging. Everyone who’s spent the last ten years paying consultants to produce viral content will be relieved to know that the latter part of this equation, the clickability of your content’s packaging, is much, much easier to optimize than the content itself. But people don’t spend enough time on this part of the process.
Your Headlines Matter
Sara and Adam, Peter’s colleagues at Upworthy, explain that we’re spending all of our content production time in the wrong places. We slave over the wording in the 12th paragraph of the blog post, and then write a throwaway headline that no one ends up clicking. If we care about people finding our content, we need to think generationally, or keep in mind not just our readers, but also what our readers’ friends will see should the gods of the feed place your work before their eyeballs.

Peter walks us through the three schools of headline optimization on the web. Peter started at the Onion, where hilarity depends almost entirely on the headlines. Unfortunately, because the entire joke is contained in the headline, users can get their giggles without actually clicking through to the site. So headlines from the Onion perform rather poorly in terms of driving traffic back to the website.
The second category of headline optimization is your traditional search engine optimization, where the headline contains all of the right keywords, and again, spells out what the page is about. Google loves proper nouns, but humans find them pretty boring.
Social optimization breaks from these two approaches and hits the user with just a taste of the content, worded in a compelling way, and often with an emotional tone. You may have noticed that brands are learning to generate interactions with their Facebook posts by asking for their followers’ opinions, because if they’re successful, Facebook rewards them by increasing the visibility of their posts. But anyone optimizing for click-throughs rather than comments should be considering the degree to which the headline teases and entices the reader while refraining from giving away the meat of the content. Peter calls this the curiosity gap: too vague, and I don’t care, but too specific, and I don’t need to click the link.
Peter shows a case study of two takes on the same 3-minute video about gay marriage. The video of Zach Wahls’s moving testimony about growing up with two moms reached a million views without Upworthy’s help, and without a great headline. The original video was titled “Zach Wahls speaks about family,” which, Peter points out, is bad because you don’t know who Zach is yet, and you might not particularly care about family. Even though it had already gone viral once, the team at Upworthy decided to try spreading the video again with an improved headline. Angie Aker at MoveOn.org came up with “Two Lesbians Raised a Baby And This Is What They Got” and made the video their daily share. The result was 20 million additional views of the same video, and a headline that regularly beats actual porn results for Google searches for “two lesbians”. A good headline teases, but also appeals to different audiences for completely different reasons. Even homophobes were intrigued enough to click that link. Upworthy will sometimes write 25 different headlines for each piece of content, and test response before selecting a finalist.
Greasing the Tracks of the Internet
For someone studying how ideas spread these days, Upworthy’s facilitation is interesting in a number of ways. First of all, Upworthy has taken after the Instagrams of the world and eschewed the traditional website-as-hub model. Where Instagram pushes everyone to their mobile app, the majority of Upworthy’s existence is in followers’ Facebook, Twitter, and Pinterest streams. Upworthy also has some rather prominent share buttons to help you connect the dots:

Adam and Sarah also advised that we spend 55 minutes on emotion for every 5 minutes of fact. And, as cognitive studies have proven, images work much, much better than text. The default image that gets shared with the link on social networks is particularly important (you can control this with Facebook’s og:image tag).
How the Social Networks Stack Up
(for the content Upworthy has tested — your mileage may very well vary):
Twitter: Not great for actually driving people to your content. Facebook accounts for about 90% of the traffic in their tests. (It’s not clear to me if they’re only counting Twitter.com traffic, or all Twitter clients, as well. This divide has historically depressed measures of Twitter referrals). Twitter users like to share facts.
Facebook: If you have a limited budget, focus everything here. Photo posts get three to four times the interaction of regular posts, but don’t necessarily drive traffic. Close-ups of faces perform well, as do visual dichotomies, in ads as well as posts.
Reddit: Good luck. If you crack it, you are a god.
Pinterest: Hey ladies! Pix please.
Testing Virality
Adam says you must test because you are dumb. We are all dumb. Our intuition means nothing, and Upworthy’s two biggest headline hits were written by interns. You will be wrong 90% of the time.
Peter will pay you $1,000 to popularize a word that describes these phenomena other than ‘virality’.
Video and slides of Peter’s presentation. Sara and Adam’s slides are pretty great, too:
There was another Tools Shootout session at Netroots Nation (#nn12) today. We’re all a bit more exhausted than Thursday’s session (13 of the Newest Political and Civic Tools), but Dan Ancona held it down and showcased another round of shiny new tools. Here are the ones I didn’t cover in the last post:
Democrats traditionally outdid Republicans online until 2010, when Republicans matched the voter file to browser cookies and targeted ads like direct mail. Jim Walsh introduced the Democratic answer: DSPolitical‘s cookie. In addition to giving out blue-frosted cookies all weekend, the tool allows campaigns to target voters online based on their voting record and 42 segments. The result is more accurate and efficient advertising (and probably a pending Filter Bubble nightmare).
Eric Ruben provides an overview Salsa Labs. The founding organization, DemocracyInAction, works with 2,200 organizations, including the AFL-CIO and many other progressive groups. The suite includes mass email tools, donation pages, a CRM, events, advocacy and contact-your-representative tools, and third party plugins.
Marci Harris founded PopVox after years as a congressional staffer. There are two ways to move legislation: move money, or move people. But there’s no good way to measure people. Counting people is hard, Congress only wants to hear from constituents, and Congress is overwhelmed by the messages generated by online tools. Congressional offices have the same number of staffers that they had in the 1970’s.
The voice of the people is diffused and frequently unfocused. A letter asking Congress to Save the Whales is not the same as asking Congress to pass HR 1234 banning whaling ships. PopVox works with Congress to deliver the people’s voice in a clean, organized format. There’s XML tagging and the messages practically sort themselves once they reach congressional offices. Individuals and organizations go through the site or its embeddable widget to support or oppose bills. All positions and counts are mapped publicly on their site. At the moment, their community is 53% Republican and 47% Democrat.
ElectNext (@electnext) is building an eHarmony for voters to find candidates they might support. They translate political data into tools that help create a more informed electorate. If you’re in the political data world today, you have access to tons of information about voters (250 unique data points). But when you flip the equation and look at what the American voter knows, consistently less than half can tell you anything about Congress, candidate positions, and other information. Where’s the average voter’s political database? ElectNext has pulled together 15 million datapoints to determine where over 4,500 candidates stand on issues. They’re live with US Senate, House and presidency and hope to expand to every US election. They also have a widget with issue and voter-candidate matching features.
Jim Pugh of Rebuild the Dream shows us Control Shift Labs, a platform to allow their members to create their own campaigns. It competes with Change.org and Signon.org, also here at the conference. As an organization, Rebuild the Dream is using the self-service campaign platform as a mechanism to identify members within their ranks who are ready to step up and assume a leadership position. This, in my opinion, is a hugely underserved area within online grassroots organizations.
Leif Utne‘s at WareCorp, which runs the SoapBlox blogging platform. It powers 80 political blogs with millions of monthly views across the network. They’ve relaunched SoapBlox.net as a media property that aggregates content. The new technology they’re announcing today is the idea of paying bloggers for content (with 50% of the advertising revenue they receive). You can become a contributor here.
Oh, and I showed off LazyTruth, which is launching imminently. Sign up at LazyTruth.com.
Netroots Nation had a New Tool Shootout session to highlight all of the cool new political tools, sponsored by New Media Ventures.

BlueStateDigital’s QuickDonate tool (now live on BarackObama.com lets your constituents save their payment information for frictionless giving. There’s also a mobile edition that pulls from the same saved credit card information, which prevents the mobile carriers from taking a cut of the donation. Even new users are spared from entering their data on a mobile device. It’s available to any organization already using BSD.
Paul Schreiber, “the TurboVote kid,” makes voting as easy as renting a DVD from Netflix. The US is 138th in voter participation. We vote on Tuesdays and generally make it hard for people to vote. Oregon introduced statewide vote-by-mail. TurboVote uses the internet to make voting as easy as buying a pair of shoes online. If the states are the laboratories of democracy, their registration requirements and forms and websites are the meth labs of democracy, Paul says. Rather than visit crappy state election board websites, you simply use TurboVote’s wizard to register to vote and/or vote by mail. When you’re done with the wizard, it generates the appropriate PDF for you to print and mail. TurboVote also has a mobile site, and partners with Voto Latino, the League of Young Voters, and other such groups.
The Voter Activation Network is working to synchronize its voter records with voters’ online social media profiles. The tool, Social Organizing, will enable organizers to reach people where they already are, rather than interrupting dinner with a phone call. There’s a strong overall trend around social organizing, and letting people bring in their real-world networks is believed to be better for all parties than a randomized call list.
Mike Sager’s working on Repurpose, a system of incentives and frequent flier miles to reward organizers who take action. They’re not just empty gamification points and badges, though; these points will direct the spending of a SuperPAC. You earn your points by doing political organizing work like canvassing, and can then redeem them to help campaigns and adbuys of your choosing.
Stephanie from SignOn.org, a free petition site created by MoveOn.org. All of the petitions created are tested with a segment of MoveOn’s huge email list, and some are further promoted within relevant segments of that list. Petition creators themselves can message the signers about anything except fundraising appeals. They’ve designed sophisticated testing systems for each petition, which is micro-targeted to others based on the petition’s signers, geography, and virality. The end result is that MoveOn is sharing their progressive email list across a wide range of progressive causes.
Tim Lim introduces his Precision Network online advertising targeting system. They can target on a number of electoral, demographic, consumer, and behavioral factors — more here.
The Agenda Project takes on the battle of ideas in American politics. Indices like http://policyexperts.org/ have always been important in national politics. The Agenda Project’s TopWonks project pulls together a stable of solid, rational policy experts all in one place. TopWonks has a profile for the progressive thinker expert you’re looking for, whether it’s municipal tax policy or developing economies. National news brands have already begun consulting the site.
Rally lets anyone with a cause share their story and raise money. The “cause” here can be a man trying to get his fianceé to move to his city, or saving a community’s church from fiscal insolvency. You can follow causes, which gives them your email address, and donate (Rally takes a 4.5% cut of donations). The system lets you send out email fundraising appeals, and shares analytics with you (donation emails with photos and videos perform better than text-only appeals). They’re also implementing a one-click donate button.
Seth Bannon introduces Amicus, which is looking to solve the problem that most of the communications in the world of social change happens between two strangers. (phonebanks, info@ email accounts, canvassers). Amicus finds your existing Facebook friends and looks for potential matches in the official voter file. Users confirm the matches, and are then asked to contact them. After you work through your list of friends, the tool connects you with friends-of-friends as well, as you still have a much better context for knowing each other than being randomly assigned a phone number. In addition to phonebanking, the system also lets you send emails and mail postcards. On the organization’s admin side of things, you can cut a list based on the target group you’re looking to contact — young women in New Hampshire, for example. Volunteers level up as they complete actions, and group administrators can reassign the weighting of various actions. If calls suddenly become vitally important to the campaign, the admin can assign more points to calls (and so far, volunteers have responded to the re-weighting). AFL-CIO and about ten nonprofits have used the tool.
Amicus demo at the Oct NYTM from Seth Bannon on Vimeo.
Eric Hysen, from Google’s Politics and Elections team, introduces google.com/elections, Google’s main elections hub. Google’s polling place gadget (powered by Voting Information Project data) shows up in Search results whenever people search for “where do I vote” “polling place” and other election-related queries. The gadget is also embeddable with a single line of code, can be customized with pre-populated addresses, and has been featured on many official campaigns’ sites. An API is available to developers, as well. This time around, they’re adding ballot information and voter ID requirements. The goal is to help voters get everything they need to vote from the tool. It appears across Google Search, Maps, and News.
Colin from LoudSauce acknowledges that most of us hate advertising, and says LoudSauce’s goal is to repurpose advertising to make it meaningful for society. Advertising favors large, entrenched, monied interests, and lets them win the attention game. But the internet allows us to transform the medium, which has historically fueled consumption, to fuel civic engagement. The politically engaged are like technology’s early adopters: they jump in early, long before the rest of society. Crowdfunded advertising allows us to reach the laggards.
The anti-consumerist video Story of Stuff, produced in 2007, was a huge win online. But most people across broader society have still never heard of it. They raised money with their supporters online and purchased national TV ads using Google TV Ads, at under $3,000 a spot, and drove many more people to the site. Only 82 donors drove 2 million additional viewers.
Their new features allow people to set up their own media-buying campaigns and activate their personal networks to raise the money to extend the reach of their video. It’s Kickstarter for amateur media. And it’s not limited to small TV buys. You can purchase video ads on MTV, CNN, Current, and YouTube. The Redditors and Upworthies of the world might be interested in this platform. Occupy Wall Street supporters produced 12 Occupy Spots ads, covering Occupy Wall Street, Occupy the Hood, and other organic messages at http://occupyspots.com/. Creative politicos created the Meh. Romney campaign and are seeking donations to bring it to the Republican convention. [LoudSauce is onto something: Facebook is reportedly toying with a similar pay-to-promote feature to allow users to expand the reach of their content across News Feeds].
DemDash is a democracy dashboard to educate activists and voters on candidates and issues. It’s in alpha and currently covers only California politics, but will be expanded to include information from the Ballot Information Project.
John Brougher talks about NationBuilder, a complete suite of well-designed organizing and activist tools available for a low monthly subscription fee. They’ve been focused on scalability since day one, resulting in the low $20 / month (and up) cost.
Christie George introduces New Media Ventures, a fund investing in progressive political and civic startups. They support nonprofits as well as for-profits, but have noticed a lack of funding in the nonprofit space for new ideas. So, this summer they’re issuing an open call to nonprofit entrepreneurs using technology to creative progressive political change. Their three criteria are that your venture be scalable, revenue generating with a sustainable business model, and creating progressive political change. They’ll be awarding grants of $25,000. Follow @newmediaventure and @christiegeorge.
Bonus tool! via Nick Grossman: Thunderclap lets you coordinate mass amplification of the same message. Right now it works by asking people to pledge to retweet, but the same strategy could work to juice YouTube views and other social media sites. I’ve actually heard from unscrupulous commercial marketers who have gamed YouTube’s top video playlists’ algorithms, to the point that they can use Mechanical Turk to get a video onto the trending videos lists, where the video then gains many, many more organic views. Thunderclap could be the grassroots version of this tactic. Although, if you’re not going to get enough amplification of the message to break the Top Whatever lists threshold, it might be better for a campaign to spread the amplification out over a period of time than to do it all at once.
I’m at Netroots Nation 2012 (#nn12) and will liveblog as possible. The first panel I got to covered the data-driven transformation of American politics, whether that’s testing messaging, identifying groups of persuadable voters, and modernizing political advertising.
David Mermin of Lake Research Partners talks about testing messages.
Traditionally, we do dial testing of targets while watching a video. The viewer toggles a dial up and down over thirty seconds, and we get a nice line graph of their reactions.
Now we have Internet surveys, visual stimuli, and other methods. But public polls online have sample issues — weighting and demographic matching still doesn’t always account for online demographics. Mapping to voter files is a challenge, as well as district boundaries. But unlike phone surveys, you can be interactive.
You can simulate a ballot, and see where people have trouble with the design. (see also http://ballotusability.blogspot.com/).
You can ask people to highlight the parts of messages they like, and create a paragraph of talking points where the key phrases that resonated with voters are larger fonts, like in a tag cloud.
And then there’s online dial testing, where you can see how the base, persuadable, shifters, and opposition each trend in their reception of your message. In this case, you can view not only how each group responds to the message, but also the gaps between groups, which you might actually seek.
Who’s persuadable?
Polling has always been concerned with identifying the persuadable voters, but there are new tools for getting answers to whose mind can be changed and which messages are effective.
Are weak partisans more partisan than independent leaners?
They tested attitude consistency from 2008-2010 on attitudes towards Obama, the NRA, and other hot-button issues. They found that independents who lean Democrat are actually more progressive on a whole range of issues than people who identify themselves as weak Democrats. The same holds true for Republicans. [Could the answer to this be that this group of independents who lean towards one side aren’t, in fact, centrists, but are actually to the left and right, respectively, of the parties?]
Iterative mail testing for the AFL-CIO
They measured the persuasion effect of mailers in 2010 and tested the targets their model predicted versus those the model predicted, and tripled the efficacy of their communications (and mail is expensive). Many of our assumptions don’t actually play out when we look at empirical tests.
Once we have data, what can we do with it?
David Radloff with Clarity Campaign Labs, formerly with ISSI:
There are a lot of terms buzzing about these days – modeling, microtargeting, statistical analysis. But a model is just a statistical tool that gives a probability for each voter’s likelihood of taking an action, voting a certain way, support an issue, and so on. Common types of models include turnout and ballot return dates and the likelihood that the person is a progressive activist.
We’ve been carving universes of voters from the voter file for a long time now. We have many pieces of data about voters – age, race, marital status, voter registration status, where they live past information from previous campaigns, and now, thousands of consumer fields augmenting the existing file. No one uses these fields individually, but rather as parts of complex models that create likelihood scores for each voter.
It’s a three step process:
1. Training data is collected from a poll or previous turnout data or other sources
2. Algorithms are applied to find patterns, usually based on
3. Score the voter file
Once you have the counts, you run them against a turnout model, which projects likelihood of turnout and likelihood of being a Democrat and cross them and see where they meet and talk to those groups. It becomes a fairly easy tool to aggregate large amounts of data you weren’t otherwise able to take into account.
So far, the empirical research has found that it’s really hard to guess, and it usually requires testing for each issue and each campaign. Conventional wisdom is something consultants tell you because they feel like they need to have an answer.
Persuasion targeting best practices
Targeted Political Advertising
Tim Lim (@PrecisionNet @limowitz):
Tim starts by illustrating the waste that’s happening in online political advertising. The total Democratic vote is much smaller than the US population, voting eligible population, and actual turnout groups.
Innovation in online advertising happens in the commerical sector. Between 15-20% of commercial media budgets are spent online. In the political world, it’s even less, and amongst Democrats, only 5% or lower.
Online advertising is effective. 2% of time spent viewing video online is spent viewing ads, while with television, 25% of your time is watching ads. This leads to better recall amongst targets in the online environment.
Most political advertising is still done primitively, through site-by-site ad buys and vendor-by-vendor deals. Measurement of ads is poor.
Precision takes the voter file, overlays third party data, does precision matching, and serves up ads.
Targeting options range from electoral information (voter ID, party, voting frequency), demographic, economic (including donor history and occupation) and behavioral (online / offline purchases, content subscriptions, online browsing habits, and browser language settings).
They also do custom list matching, so you can target ads on your existing supporters list. It’s a shift from buying media on specific websites to buying media to reach specific people.
aCPM is the actual CPM it takes to reach your target audience. Advertising on mainstream sites like CNN, HuffPo, and others costs more because only 20% of site visitors might be in your target group.
David Radoff: The exciting thing is merging all of these fields together.
For my final Participatory News assignment (and because one can never have too many projects), I’m going to try to build this semi-automated grading rubric for shoddy science journalism over the next couple of weeks:
I’m interested in nutrition, and health in general. As a result, I’ve read a lot of really shoddy nutrition and health news over the years. I’ve noticed that the mistakes journalists make usually involve coverage of a single scientific study. For example, correlation is presented as causation, making us all a little dumber. You can see for yourself over at Google News’s Health section, where you can see a variety of takes on the same study results. A study on the mental benefits of expressing one’s feelings inevitably produces the clickbait headline, in one source, that Twitter is better than sex.
What if readers and journalists had a semi-automated grading rubric they could apply to media coverage of medical studies and drug development?
I started looking around, and found that science journalists are concerned with these problems. Veterans like Fiona Fox at the Science Media Centre have even shared some specific red flags for the skeptical observer. I was also fortunate enough to meet with two of our classmates (who also happen to be Knight Science Fellows), Alister Doyle and Helen Shariatmadari, who, in addition to significant personal experience, pointed me to great additional resources:
I’ll also be meeting with science writer Hannah Krakauer tomorrow.
I’m pulling out as many “rules” (in the software sense) as I can from these recommendations, and will then attempt to build a semi-automated grading rubric for these types of articles. It’s important to note that there will still be user involvement in producing the score.
I hope to present the results in the spirit of HubSpot‘s Grader.com series of tools for grading website marketing, books, and Twitter authority. The tools themselves vary in utility, but the format of the results embeds an educational layer into the score review (unlike closed-algorithm services like Klout). I am more interested in training journalists and readers to develop a keen eye for the hallmarks of high- or low-quality science reporting than the actual numerical score on a given article. By asking for readers’ involvement in scoring an article, I might be able to augment the automatic grading with human input, but also help teach critical thinking skills.
Down the road, it’d be interesting to incorporate other journalism tools. rbutr integration could allow us to pull from and contribute to crowdsourced rebuttals of misinformation, while Churnalism would let us scan the articles for unhealthy amounts of press release.
New Scientist andEngadget covered our LazyTruth side project today! So we spent tonight trying to get OpenID working so you can install the app yourself. Thanks to Justin and Stefan for bringing this thing to life.

Craig Allen: one of the two writers of the Old Spice campaign, is here to tell us about its origins.
Old Spice Guy himself, Isaiah Mustafa, was supposed to be here but is currently busy using his biceps as a dam to prevent a flood from wiping out a small village, but has recorded a personal message for ROFLcon.
Craig worked at TBWA Chiat/ Day on Skittles, Starburst, Vodka, and other things that are bad for you. So he went to Wieden+Kennedy to work on Nike and Old Spice and drink free Coke. They have a terrifying collection of former Old Spice props.
The original storyboards show a white guy on horseback, before they casted Isaiah. There was a lot of debate about whether Old Spice Guy should have a girlfriend, and if so, should he have multiple girlfriends. Wieden+Kennedy disagreed with Procter and Gamble on this matter.
Craig has predicted our questions for us and prepared answers in advance.
Isaiah is currently single.
Also, they nearly killed him on every shoot. The studio bathroom is very heavy, and was built on top of a boat, and collapsed during one shoot, which fortunately, occurred before Isaiah was famous.
The first commercial required 63 takes over 3 days. Fortunately, Isaiah is flawless, which is good, because everything else that could go wrong did go wrong.
Like the rest of us, creative types at Wieden+Kennedy spend 99% of their day in pointless meetings. In his little concepting time, Craig plays around online at ESPN and celebrity sites. He says concepting is pretty depressing act of sitting in a room fighting over ideas and generally hating each other.
The perks of having come up with such a successful campaign are many: Craig gets to travel to cool places, ride rollercoasters, and get away with stranger ad campaigns. They got Grover to model in a spot, Smell Like a Monster.
He also got to ride motorcycles with Fabio. Fabio owns a LOT of motorcycles.
On the downside, they shoot spots over Christmas. “The only people making money off this are Procter & Gamble and Isaiah.
No, you can’t intentionally make something viral.
Isaiah Mustafa Skypes in!
Client approval on the live responses: The client wasn’t exactly thrilled about not having approval of the web videos before they went live. They gave a few simple rules: no dead animal jokes, no sex jokes. Then they’d call after watching a video that had gone live, because they were watching along at the same time as the public, and they’d say, “Hey, about that dead animal joke…that was very clearly prohibited.” And we’d say we had to run.
Is it Isaiah’s charm, or the script?
Isaiah: It’s all your writing, wordfather.
Craig: If I read the same script, no one would laugh. So let’s split it 50-50.
Has this changed Hollywood’s perception of you?
Isaiah, laughing: Well, there was no perception before, so it’s been positive for my career.
When’s the next commercial?
Craig: I legally can’t say.
We applaud Craig’s weird and extensive portfolio of Skittles commercials, including the one where the old man gets milked. “That one didn’t run as much.”
Can you turn these commercial characters into full-blown franchises? I’d like to see the Old Spice Guy team up with the Most Interesting Man in the World and explore the globe.
Apparently the Most Interesting Man in the World is super old, kind of a perv, and lives on a boat in Marina Del Ray.
Craig: People don’t mind being sold to if you’re truly entertaining them. That Jennifer Aniston thing that came out where she just drank water.
Did you actually sell more Old Spice to women?
Yes. I was astounded at the research. Apparently, we, as gentlemen, don’t buy our own body products. Especially when you’re married, your wife goes to the store, she smells the things, and she informs you how you’ll be swelling.
What scent do you wear?
Craig is a Denali man. Isaiah has to wear it or an alarm goes off. He has every flavor known to man.
What are the conceptual differences in copy written for men vs. women?
Women like to be complimented and told all of their finer qualities that we forget all too often. But guys wouldn’t watch that. So we disguised that in manly talk and jokes to get past guys’ radar. Isaiah is what women want their man to be, and men are happy to have him do it for them.
Things get personal and someone asks if Isaiah knows Craig’s wife (who’s fair game because we saw her sign into Skype). Craig tells the story of his wife having their baby while they were filming together.
What computer were you using in the Mantoclaus commercials?
It was like a box with orange buttons on it.
What are your favorite internet memes, beside yourself?
“I hide my wife and I hide my kids.”
[He’s singing tonight at 7!]
Has a celebrity ever freaked out when meeting Isaiah?
It happened this one night where I got invited to an Oscar party by Madonna and Demi Moore, because I did a PSA for Ashton Kutcher. I show up not knowing anybody. Chris Evans, Captain America comes up to me, and he’s cool enough to let me tag along with him for a while. So I just start walking up to people. I walk up to Forrest Whittaker and introduce myself. He looks at me kind of strange, so I go, “I do those Old Spice commercials,” and he goes, “WHOA!” and they recount the action. I go over to Josh Groban and tell him I used his dad’s voice a little for the character, and he’s equally astounded. So I feel really good about myself, start to walk outside, and this guy goes, “Young man, come here.” I turn around, and it’s Tom Hanks. I could have died right then.
Do you feel as if being a black man as the face of a large American brand has impacted the world of advertising?
Maybe a little. People are people nowadays. Terry Crews literally kicked the door down for me.
We ask him to say some lines in character. The crowd demands his shirt off. He checks with the Princess Leia cardboard cutout behind him, she approves, the shirt comes off. He recites the original spot’s monologue without blinking. Raucous applause follows.
(Or, A peak into the psyche of one of the most negative fan bases in the country)
This week’s Participatory News assignment is to report on breaking news via citizen media. Since I couldn’t be in Toronto for tonight’s Red Sox game, I decided to see if I could follow along via Twitter. This report was written entirely from the #redsox and #jays hashtags on Twitter, with occasional glances at theScore’s liveblog. I covered the event from the perspective of fans watching the game live and on TV, rather than relying on direct coverage like MLB.tv, TV, or radio. Almost, if not all, of the information here was attained by following social media. I censored most of the bad stuff, but the tweets below contain some sports fan humor. (more…)
The Next Web pulled together snippets of the press releases tech companies share when laying off thousands of employees. I removed the specific company names (to focus on common language) and created a quick word cloud:
Not surprisingly, the not-great news of “our business has to changed at the scale of firing thousands of people who were once necessary” is frequently spun into “we’re pro-actively realigning our business to be even better in a modern global industry!” There are so many positive words in here! Perhaps the fired employees could benefit from this strategy, as well, by incorporating some of this language into their resumes. They didn’t get laid off, they aggressively realigned their position in a global market.